Collin Morikawa enters 2026 Open Championship as surprise long shot at +3400 odds

Collin Morikawa headlines the 2026 Open Championship as a surprise long-shot pick at +3400 odds, with pundits highlighting his links-ready game and iron play as key strengths.

Why Morikawa is a dark-horse pick at Royal Birkdale

Morikawa, the 2021 Open champion, enters the 150th edition of golf’s oldest major as a surprise pick at +3400 odds. The 29-year-old American hasn’t been a betting favorite in recent majors, but his iron game and distance give him a clear edge on links layouts like Royal Birkdale.

What the pundits say about Morikawa’s chances

Analysts point to Morikawa’s iron play as his biggest weapon on links courses. His ability to hit tight fairways and dial in approach shots could keep him in contention despite modest odds. One pundit noted that if Morikawa can make putts, he’ll be in the mix on Sunday.

How Morikawa’s 2026 form stacks up

Morikawa hasn’t been a betting favorite in recent majors, but his game fits links golf. His iron play remains elite, and his distance off the tee gives him a chance to attack pins on firm, fast greens. Health has been a question mark, but when fit, Morikawa’s ball-striking is among the best in the field.

Royal Birkdale’s challenge for the field

Royal Birkdale’s par-70 layout stretches 7,223 yards, demanding precision off the tee and dialed-in iron play. The course’s bunkers and undulating greens punish wayward shots, making Morikawa’s strengths a perfect match for the challenge ahead.

Top contenders and Morikawa’s path to the Claret Jug

Scottie Scheffler leads the betting at +620, followed by Rory McIlroy at +850. Morikawa’s path to the Claret Jug runs through steady ball-striking and clutch putting. If he can avoid the big numbers, his game gives him a real shot to contend in a stacked field.

What to watch from Morikawa this week

Morikawa’s iron play will be the difference-maker. His ability to hit fairways and dial in approach shots could keep him in the hunt. If he can make putts, don’t be shocked to see him in the mix on Sunday at Royal Birkdale.