Fernando Tatís Jr. among top MLB home run picks for July 9

Fernando Tatís Jr. is a top pick to hit a home run on Thursday, July 9, 2026, with +337 odds. The San Diego Padres star is coming off a three-home-run week and faces a struggling Diamondbacks pitcher in Merrill Kelly, who has given up 10 homers in six home starts this season.

Why Tatís Jr. is a strong home run bet

Tatís Jr. has been heating up at the plate, batting .321 this week. Despite a slow start to 2026-going 56 games without a home run-he has since hit three in a week. His lifetime stats against Kelly are impressive: a .355 batting average, four home runs, and a 1.186 OPS in 31 at-bats.

Kelly’s struggles at home make this an even better matchup. The Diamondbacks starter has a 7.44 ERA in six home starts, surrendering 10 home runs. Tatís Jr.’s power and Kelly’s vulnerability create a favorable scenario for a big hit.

Other top home run picks for July 9

Heriberto Hernandez of the Marlins is another top pick with +610 odds. He has been on a tear, going 7-of-15 with four home runs in his last five games. Hernandez faces Bryce Miller, who has allowed five home runs in his last four starts.

What to watch for in Thursday’s games

With seven evening MLB games on July 9, home run props are a key focus. Tatís Jr. and Hernandez are the top picks, but other matchups could also produce long balls. Keep an eye on these games for potential power performances.