Ja Morant’s exit forces Grizzlies win-total projections to shift for 2026-27

Ja Morant’s absence forces fresh projections for Memphis Grizzlies’ 2026-27 wins

On 18 June 2026, the Memphis Grizzlies closed the door on the Ja Morant era after trading the All-NBA guard to the New York Knicks. The move came just days after Memphis missed the playoffs for the first time in six seasons, ending a run that included back-to-back Western Conference finals appearances in 2022 and 2023.

What happened to the Grizzlies after Ja Morant left?

The Grizzlies finished 38-44 in 2025-26, their first losing record since 2019-20. Memphis ranked 11th in the West, five games out of the play-in tournament. The slide followed a January blockbuster that sent Morant to New York in exchange for three first-round picks and two young forwards. The deal capped a chaotic offseason after Morant’s season-ending left knee injury in March 2026 and his subsequent trade request.

How analysts are rethinking Memphis’ win total for 2026-27

ESPN’s Kevin O’Connor projects the Grizzlies for 34 wins next season, down from 45 in 2025-26. The model assumes a full recovery for Desmond Bane, who missed 40 games in 2025-26 with a thumb injury. The Grizzlies also added guard Tyrese Maxey in a sign-and-trade with Philadelphia, but his fit alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. remains untested.

What comes next for a Grizzlies roster in flux

The Grizzlies now lean on a core of Jackson, Bane, and rookie Ziaire Williams to anchor a rebuild. Memphis holds three unprotected first-round picks over the next two drafts, giving the front office flexibility to restock through the lottery. The front office has also retained veteran big man Steven Adams, hoping his rim protection can mask a thin interior rotation. Training camp opens 2 September 2026, with Jackson returning as the team’s lone All-Star from 2025-26.