Justin Herbert’s trade value soars to four first-round picks, ESPN analysis shows

Justin Herbert’s trade value just hit a sky-high number. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell pegged the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback’s asking price at four first-round picks in a trade scenario, underscoring his elite status in the NFL.

What did ESPN’s Bill Barnwell say?

Bill Barnwell, ESPN’s senior writer, ranked Herbert fourth in trade value among quarterbacks on 16 July 2026. Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and rookie Drake Maye sat above him. Barnwell cited Herbert’s elite arm talent, age advantage over peers like Joe Burrow, and the league-wide QB shortage as key drivers. “Herbert hasn’t yet put together the MVP season that so many people think he’s capable of producing, but just about every coach in football would be desperate to have a quarterback with Herbert’s arm strength and throwing talent,” Barnwell wrote.

Why does Justin Herbert’s value matter now?

At 28, Herbert is younger than Allen (30) and Mahomes (31), which boosts his trade appeal. Barnwell placed him just ahead of Joe Burrow in overall value, citing the age gap and durability concerns. The valuation reflects a market where elite QBs command premium returns, even without a deep postseason run. For the Chargers, it’s a reminder of Herbert’s irreplaceable role-despite the lack of a Super Bowl berth to date.

How does this compare to other top QBs?

Herbert trails only Allen, Mahomes and Maye in trade value, per Barnwell’s ranking. Allen and Mahomes have already delivered playoff success, while Maye is the rookie phenom who entered the conversation fast. Herbert’s inclusion ahead of Burrow-despite Burrow’s recent playoff heroics-highlights how his raw tools and age profile outweigh recent team success. The gap between Herbert and the top trio is narrow, but it’s there.

What’s next for Justin Herbert and the Chargers?

The Chargers aren’t trading Herbert, at least not this offseason. Mike McDaniel’s arrival as offensive coordinator aims to push Herbert further, with early reports suggesting mechanical tweaks that could unlock another gear. If Herbert improves in 2026, his trade value could climb past four first-round picks. For now, the Bolts keep their franchise QB-and their window to win with him wide open.

*Related: Chargers player under most pressure entering 2026 NFL season*