Magomed Ankalaev favored to outpoint Bogdan Guskov in five-round UFC clash

Magomed Ankalaev steps into the cage as the heavy betting chalk against Bogdan Guskov at UFC Abu Dhabi on July 25, with the Russian former light heavyweight champion listed around -460 to extend his winning streak.

What’s the betting telling us?

Ankalaev is a prohibitive favorite at roughly 80 percent implied probability, with Guskov sitting at +360. A $460 bet on Ankalaev nets $100 profit if he wins, while a $100 wager on Guskov returns $360 if the underdog shocks the odds. The moneyline favors the former champion by unanimous decision, though late TKO remains a live alternative if Guskov fades after an aggressive start.

How did we get here?

Ankalaev owns a 20-2 record and has logged multiple five-round title fights, including wins over Alex Pereira and Aleksandar Rakić. His latest outing ended in a first-round TKO loss to Pereira in their UFC 320 rematch last October, snapping the Russian’s 11-fight unbeaten streak. Guskov, ranked No. 10, steps in as a short-notice replacement for Khalil Rountree Jr. less than two weeks before the July 25 main event at Etihad Arena.

Guskov has 18 wins, all by stoppage, including 13 first-round finishes. His UFC resume boasts knockouts over Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann plus a guillotine submission of Billy Elekana. But his lone UFC fight to reach the second round shows the step up in fight IQ and conditioning he’ll face against Ankalaev.

Why this matters for Magomed Ankalaev

A measured decision win over Guskov would steady Ankalaev after the Pereira setback and keep him in the hunt for another elite opponent or a belt rematch. The five-round format plays to his strengths-tactical pacing, cleaner defense, and feints-after a year that saw him absorb a brutal early knockout and regroup.

Guskov’s best shot is to crowd Ankalaev in the opening exchanges, target the body, and force mistakes before the favorite settles in. But Ankalaev’s wrestling, kicking game, and ability to limit big exchanges should let him bank rounds as Guskov’s pace drops.

What comes next?

Ankalaev by decision is the likelier outcome, though Guskov’s power means a first-round knockout remains the upset scenario. A Guskov win would catapult the Uzbek into the top-tier conversation, but the Russian’s résumé and five-round savvy tilt the odds firmly in his favor.

The July 25 main event at Etihad Arena delivers a clash of styles: Ankalaev’s measured precision against Guskov’s relentless early pressure.