Patrick Mahomes leads Chiefs snubbed from analyst’s Super Bowl contender list

Patrick Mahomes remains the Chiefs’ unquestioned centerpiece as training camp looms, yet one analyst still left Kansas City off his Super Bowl contender list for 2026.

What happened?

On July 22, Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated published his annual Super Bowl contender rankings. The list named 14 teams he believes can win the Lombardi Trophy next season. The Kansas City Chiefs were not among them. Orr acknowledged Patrick Mahomes as one of the NFL’s two best quarterbacks and projected the Chiefs to win 11 or 12 games in 2026. Still, he argued the roster losses and offensive-line concerns outweigh Mahomes’ elite play.

Why it matters for Patrick Mahomes

The snub arrives as the Chiefs prepare for camp on July 24 with rookies reporting. Mahomes is expected to be ready for Week 1 after a down 2025 season. Orr’s omission spotlights roster turnover: Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie are gone, and the offensive line remains a question mark. Kenneth Walker III was the biggest free-agent addition, while first-round rookie Mansoor Delane is expected to bolster the secondary. Yet replacing two starting corners with a rookie and running the same offensive line again raises durability alarms.

Orr also questioned the receiving corps around Mahomes. Xavier Worthy has underwhelmed to date, and Rashee Rice’s 2026 status is uncertain. Travis Kelce, now 36, is a diminished version of his elite self from a few years ago. On paper, the Chiefs face an uphill climb to the playoffs.

What comes next?

Training camp opens July 24 with Mahomes under center and Andy Reid orchestrating the offense. The Chiefs open the regular season on September 14 at home against the Chargers. Orr’s omission doesn’t change the fact that Mahomes and Reid have defied odds before. But the Chiefs must prove they can navigate roster gaps without collapsing.

The analyst’s take underscores a tension: Mahomes alone may not be enough if the supporting cast can’t keep pace. Kansas City’s ceiling still hinges on health, development, and front-office upgrades beyond Walker’s arrival.