Paul Skenes Cy Young odds drop after rough June start for Pirates ace

Paul Skenes’ odds to win the 2026 National League Cy Young Award have slid sharply after the Pittsburgh Pirates ace posted a 7.04 ERA in June. The right-hander finished the month with a 3-5 record and a 1.45 WHIP, his worst month of the season so far.

Skenes, the Pirates’ Opening Day starter, allowed 12 earned runs over 15.1 innings in June-his highest monthly ERA since joining the majors. His strikeout rate dipped below 25%, while his walk rate jumped to 11.7%, both red flags for a pitcher who thrived on command early in the year. The 22-year-old finished June with a 5.40 ERA overall, up from 3.12 at the end of May.

The Cy Young race was already crowded before June, with Skenes’ early dominance-including a 2.80 ERA in April-putting him in the mix. But his June collapse erased much of that goodwill. The Pirates’ bullpen has also struggled, leaving Skenes exposed despite his own struggles. Now, his path to contention requires a strong July and August to justify his preseason hype.

Skenes will look to rebound when the Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 14. A strong outing there could steady his season, while another rough start would further damage his Cy Young chances. The Pirates, meanwhile, need their top prospect to return to form-his struggles have coincided with a 10-game losing streak in June.

At 22, Skenes entered 2026 as the Pirates’ unquestioned ace after a dominant rookie campaign. His June slide has raised questions about whether he’s ready to handle the workload of a true staff leader. The Pirates’ rotation has been shaky all year, and Skenes’ performance will dictate whether they can climb out of the NL Central basement.