Shohei Ohtani's NL MVP Odds Plummet to -1800 Amid Dominant Performance

Shohei Ohtani's NL MVP odds have plummeted to -1800, a stark reflection of his dominant performance on the mound and at the plate.

What happened?

In recent weeks, Shohei Ohtani has begun to look so human-batting .263 in July, allowing multiple runs in his past four pitching starts and skipping the All-Star Game for knee maintenance-that his National League MVP odds have been cut in half. Yup, what was once an outlandish -4000 bet on Fanatics Sportsbook is now … a still-absurd -1800.

Why it matters for Shohei Ohtani

The Los Angeles Dodgers' two-way superstar has made this a boring race year after year. He is on pace to win his fourth straight MVP and fifth in six years (the first two in the American League with the Angels). The conversation among sports traders has shifted from "What are the odds that he'll have an MVP-caliber season?" to "What are the chances that either someone is so spectacular to knock him off the perch or what are the chances that he gets injured and misses a significant amount of time?"

What comes next?

Tyler Gour, a sports trader for Fanatics, explained the thought process dating back to December, when the company listed its preliminary awards odds. "The conversation we have with ourselves is not so much 'What are the odds that he'll have an MVP-caliber season?' because we know he probably will," Gour said. "Instead, it turns into 'What are the odds that either someone is so spectacular to knock him off the perch or what are the chances that he gets injured and misses a significant amount of time?'"

Through the first half, Ohtani has again been a cheat code, performing as one of the game's best hitters (his .953 OPS ranks third in the NL) and pitchers (his 0.95 WHIP would rank third, though he is just below the innings threshold to qualify for league leaders). Or, in more fun terms from Stark's column: Shohei the Pitcher could give up a hit to the next 45 consecutive hitters he pitched to (which seems unlikely), and the batters who have faced him still wouldn’t have as good a slash line this year as Shohei the Hitter.

Gour's team posted the odds at +110 heading into the season, which he called "unprecedented," noting that New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, a three-time AL MVP, is typically listed around +400. The book's biggest liability is the New York Mets' Juan Soto, who's now a big underdog at +4000. Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is Ohtani's top challenger, second on the MVP betting board, at +750.

Though Ohtani's opening number suggested it was a coin flip whether he'd win MVP, "it didn't scare off bettors." Gour said. So now it comes down to whether Ohtani will miss significant time with an injury. He was supposed to start on the mound last Friday, but the Dodgers scratched him because of knee pain; still, he was in the lineup as the designated hitter and homered. Ohtani got his knee drained and received an injection after Sunday's game.

The Dodgers tripped into the break with three straight losses but still have an MLB-best 61-36 record. To get ahead of ourselves a bit, Ohtani could be searching for his first-ever World Series MVP this fall.