Vladimir Guerrero Jr. predicted to lead MLB in second-half home runs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has struggled in 2026, hitting just six home runs in 92 games. But Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter predicts the Blue Jays star will lead MLB in second-half homers. It’s a bold call for a player who’s far from his 2021 form.

What’s behind Guerrero’s slump?

Guerrero’s 1.5% home run rate this season is his lowest since his rookie year. He hit 48 homers in 2021 and 30 in 2024, but 2026 has been a different story. The 27-year-old’s power numbers have plummeted, raising concerns about his future with Toronto.

Why the second-half prediction?

Reuter points to Guerrero’s history of stronger second-half performances. Over his career, he’s hit 79 homers in the second half compared to 101 in the first half. His second-half home run rate (5.0%) is slightly higher than his first-half rate (4.4%).

Can Guerrero turn it around?

Two of Guerrero’s six homers this season came in the final four games before the All-Star break. If he can build on that momentum, a late-season surge isn’t impossible. But leading MLB in second-half homers would require a historic turnaround.

The Blue Jays need Guerrero to rebound if they want to make a playoff push. His struggles have been a major factor in Toronto’s underwhelming season. A second-half resurgence could change their fortunes.